New problem

[emfrat]

Well, in order of preference, there are Rumblies, Vacuum Cleaners and Roaries - but what are we going to call these?

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-england-derbyshire-59359263

[Charl]

Rumblies, Vacuum Cleaners, Roaries, and Mmmmm

So good to step away from all the hand-wringing about what we've done to the planet, and see someone doing something exciting about it.
This has something of the Schneider Trophy Supermarine S.6B racing seaplane, if you want to keep it British.

Our species has some awesome techno development capabilities in the 21st century - can't wait to see some of the outcomes!

[cowpatz]

Yep good for about 10 min of endurance I'd say.
As we have seen with electric cars; when these energy packed batteries "let go" it is spectacular. The last thing a pilot needs at several thousand feet is for his aircraft to turn into the equivalent of an arc welder.

[chopper_nut]

The original Supermarine racers had an endurance of about 10 mins before the engine went 'pop'. Hopefully this sort of thing drives some innovation into battery life so I can have my laptop unplugged for more than 30 mins

[Charl]

Exactly.
The kind of engineering development that allows the Cosworth V12 to turn all its bits at 12,000 rpm is poised to do the same kind of thing for the electric vehicle.

It's all about the batteries, and the progress has been astonishing since the first Li-ion batteries burned themselves a niche in the 787's history.
(And just a reminder that it was the Rolls Royce turbine that kept those grounded )

I am probably a little ahead of myself, but someone did remark the other day that there was not a single infernal combustion engine on the property here.
100% electric, mostly battery, and just a pleasure to use and (not really have to) maintain.
Mmmmm.

[emfrat]

Sometimes the application of bleeding-edge tech verges on lunacy

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-59357306

[cowpatz]

The cost of some EVs is just prohibitive. I'm sure there is a lot of price gouging going on at the moment plus I'm sure dealers are loading up the on road price knowing that the buyer gets a rebate.
$80K for an electric roller skate is simply outrageous.

Kia Niro

Then comes the battery replacement cost down track.......like a lot of poor Nissan leaf owners are experiencing.
Still quite a ways to go.

[Charl]

Sometimes the application of bleeding-edge tech verges on lunacy

There is of course a lot of BS reporting to fill the media void - Tesla's have a card you can use to operate the vehicle, instead of your phone.
If you went out without that backup you deserve to walk home.
The flipside is just amazing - since the Model 3 was launched, it has had several over-the-air upgrades, some goofy (like more games on the console), some which beggar belief, like 5% more range (battery management improved) and performance improvements (ditto). This without putting a spanner on the car.

The cost ...Then comes the battery replacement cost ]

They are expensive because they don't have the economies of scale - yet.
(Although Tesla dropped their prices 10% in the last year.)
But the avalanche has happened, so your next vehicle may well be electric without too much pain.
As to batteries, you generally get an 8 year warranty, plus these days they don't just fall over.
When they get down to 80% or so, they can be swapped out for use as stationary backup (=Power Wall)
And the components are now ALL recyclable so it's a circular material stream.
etc.

[cowpatz]

I agree the media can be both sensationalist and alarmist; with the truth falling somewhere in between.
The economies of scale probably wont be realised for a while yet as BEV battery capacity is increasing all the time and consuming more raw materials.
Current battery technology uses approx 28Kg of Cobalt per 100 Kwh with it forecast to drop to 60% by 2035. Some Teslas have 75 Kwh batteries.
In 2019 global production of Cobalt exceeded 2% of today's total known reserves and 1% of Lithium and Graphite.
This is projected to increase 5 to 17 fold over the next 20 years.

Yes there is recycling but not quite as we know it. The cells are checked for energy density remaining and either used to build "new" packs or diverted to lesser tasks such as you mentioned (Stationary battery packs etc)
With 245 Million BEV vehicles predicted to be on the road by 2035; that's a lot of precious raw material. (Sort of like using fossil fuels in a way without the climate change aspect).
This doesn't include all the other devices that require the same resource or the humane aspect invovled in mining operations in some countries.

Of course battery technology will improve, but until it does, I'm still a fan of a Hydrogen hybrid. Certainly for heavy vehicles. Tiwai point would be a great starting point for NZ.

On another note I read in an article by Leeham News and Analysis that, with respect to SAFs (Sustainable Aviation Fuels), one US operator stated that he could run his entire fleet for only 1 day on the current worldwide supply of SAFs!

[emfrat]

With 245 Million BEV vehicles predicted to be on the road by 2035; that's a lot of precious raw material. (Sort of like using fossil fuels in a way without the climate change aspect).

Yes indeed - but staying with the present, and the near future, what is being used to generate all the recharge power?

Mike

[Charl]

With 245 Million BEV vehicles predicted to be on the road by 2035; that's a lot of precious raw material. (Sort of like using fossil fuels in a way without the climate change aspect).

The market will decide - and already has, in some places.
Unlike fossil fuels, it's not a one-way street.
And batteries will be made of the most surprising things, not just rare elements.

Yes indeed - but staying with the present, and the near future, what is being used to generate all the recharge power?
Mike

As to generating the electricity, the world is about to tip into renewables.
The vested interests in fossil fuels have slowed the process somewhat, but it will happen.
We have hydro and are about 85% renewable, even Oz has around 30% with plenty more sun where that came from, and so on.

Hydrogen has distribution issues, perhaps it would be suited to large point-to-point destinations: shipping and maybe rail.
Not trucks, we have to get rid of the big trucks because they break the roads. Not an easy job - again due to strong vested interest.
See? now you've got me going...

Back on topic:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kd-RDX1IjuM

hard to see where aviation will be in the short term, maybe battery tech will hit the required energy density sooner rather than later.

[emfrat]

Speaking of crazy applications of high-tech...A road traffic feed that I keep an eye on is being swamped by ads for the latest Dyson offering. Darling daughter has had a Dyson for years, and she reckons it would get nits off primary schoolkids at forty paces, so they are a good piece of kit.
This one costs upwards of AUD1300 - but it has a laser-based counter which will tell you how many dust particles it has sucked up
Madness!

[deeknow]

Interesting convo chaps, keep it up.

There was a chat on RNZ yesterday with a guy who's just landed the first hydrogen powered Hyundai truck in NZ as a trial, they are going to use mobile refill points until infrastructure available, gonna be fascinating to watch this renewables based fuel landscape over time for sure...

https://www.rnz.co.nz/national/programm ... or-haulage

Things are certainly ramping up. One of my workmates has just bought a Nissan Leaf, only a mother could love the looks of the thing but the market is clearly there now for sellers of the things.

@emfrat - That's funny re the Dyson, also love the "at 40 paces" reference, such an old school phrase :-)

[Charl]

That is big suction...
Wish Sir James spent some of the R&D on the Dyson trigger action, extended use can cause index finger atrophy.

Amazing that folk buy them at that price point.

[Naki]

:o That is big suction...
Wish Sir James spent some of the R&D on the Dyson trigger action, extended use can cause index finger atrophy.

Amazing that folk buy them at that price point.

And spent a fortune on a electric car development to compete with Tesla etc and eventually gave up

[Charl]

Apple, Sony, Google... all had a look in at EV's.
Thing is the product looks quite simple relative to ICE products but the logistics train behind a mass-produced vehicle is fairly daunting.
Musk certainly showed them how.
And by admission of Volkswagen CEO Herbert Diess, is still about 7 years ahead of the game.

[Charl]

I'm still a fan of a Hydrogen hybrid.

Well, it seems you are not alone