Musings on the middle east (Iran)

[Splitpin]

If you sort through all the non news we are bombarded with daily, there a couple of "developing stories" that are quite concerning (to me anyway) churning away in the background.
Im talking about Iran , and their nuclear (or not) situation at the moment.

I have a theory , feel free to shoot me down, as Im sure someone will do....and it goes like this:

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has been baiting the west for years, and in particular, his nemesis Israel. This latest round of posturing (i believe) is too draw Israel into a conflict .
Something the Israelis have been wanting for some time, and made no effort to hide the fact.

I believe that Ahmadinejad, hopes that the other Arab nations will somehow back him(if Israel attacks), knowing the feeling for Israel in the region. Egypt appears to be the only friend the Israelis have, and i think that is a little fragile .
Ok, Iran comes clean and tells the world they have a nuclear program (weapons) , Israel cant live with the fact and attack's Iran....the U.S just sit back and shake their finger at Iran....again .....they are out of it anyway. Egypt finds that it cant support an unjustified attack on a fellow nation,.... and its all on.....and Israel will use nukes if backed into a corner.

This is serious stuff, and could be kicked off in about a week. I think the U.S has to step in, and rein in Israel(as if they will listen) .....the" state" that has ignored the last 66 U.N sanctions against it....the state that thinks they are beyond reproach...
.How dare any other nuclear power (USA, Israel, Russia....whoever) say who and who cant have nuclear weapons, or the potential to have them...... utter arrogance .....and i really believe these people could be the end of us all.

Sorry to rant.....but this just goes on and on.....the west(and its puppets)are not the world police.......Live and let live........and if there's no oil....dont worry about it.

Im sorry if this is a little off the wall, but it's the result of a very heated sunday dinner conversation , and as there are some members of the intelligence on this forum, i thought i would throw it in the pot.....

[Ian Warren]

QUOTE (Splitpin @ Feb 12 2012,9:27 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

(1) - I have a theory , feel free to shoot me down, as Im sure someone will do....and it goes like this:

(2) - Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,

(3) - pot.....

(1) - I'm going to shoot you down now

(2) - I cant even pronounce the silly buggers name

(3) - POT .. forget the oil and give em plenty of that , the entire area is and has been unstable since that word was invented .. POT's the answer

[SeanTK]

A few things to keep in mind:

Saudi Arabia is really ticked-off with Iran right now, especially after the assassination attempt on one of the Saudi ambassadors. They've been rivals for a while prior to that too. (The whole Sunni vs. Shia thing)

Another aspect that's interesting is that Israel is really hinting and warning that air operations against Iran are a possibility. This is unique because no significant warning was given prior to the strikes against Syrian assets in 2007, and Iraqi infrastructure in 1981. Read into that what you will.

A few other interesting factoids:
As of today, Iran claims that they will reveal recent "major nuclear achievements" to the world, which hopefully won't speed up Israeli action, although the nature of these achievements could mean that we see strike operations commencing before the roughly estimated/predicted Spring months, if the current pace keeps up.


Do I think Israeli will strike? It's very hard to say. A lot of the tough rhetoric has been purely through the sensationalist media outlets across the globe, but when you strip away the doom and gloom predictions, there still are underlying facts that indicate that military action continues to be considered. So far, Israel has been using generally more indirect tactics against Iran to try to slow progress ("suspicious" scientist killings, computer viruses, etc), but it's difficult to say at this point in time if we'll see the jets (and missiles) fly in the coming months. If I had to make a call on it though, I would tend to believe that if Iran continues doing what it's doing, especially if they start talking about facilities that can enrich uranium to higher than the single digits (what they're doing now) then I think that the possibility is somewhat decent that there will be military involvement.

[Splitpin]

Sean

Excellent reply. You raise an interesting point regarding the Saudi's, i didnt take that into account.

And another good point regarding Israel "Another aspect that's interesting is that Israel is really hinting and warning that air operations against Iran are a possibility. This is unique because no significant warning was given prior to the strikes against Syrian assets in 2007, and Iraqi infrastructure in 1981." ...very interesting.

Lets hope the situation improves , although Im sure the media vultures think differently.

[steelsporran]

I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology.

   The Saudis have stated they will go nuclear if Iran produces weapons, Syria is suspected of also having a nuclear weapons programme so probably the only hope of equilibrium in the region will be what has so far prevented nuclear war - MAD (mutually assured destruction).

[Splitpin]

QUOTE (steelsporran @ Feb 13 2012,11:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology.

   The Saudis have stated they will go nuclear if Iran produces weapons, Syria is suspected of also having a nuclear weapons programme so probably the only hope of equilibrium in the region will be what has so far prevented nuclear war - MAD (mutually assured destruction).

"I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology." exactly the point i was trying to make (in my mixed up way).....I understand the friction that Iran is causing , but how can nations that already have those weapons dictate who cant have them.
Let them all stockpile the bloody things , but dont make it an exclusive club.

[SeanTK]

QUOTE (Splitpin @ Feb 12 2012,5:58 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology." exactly the point i was trying to make (in my mixed up way).....I understand the friction that Iran is causing , but how can nations that already have those weapons dictate who cant have them.
Let them all stockpile the bloody things , but dont make it an exclusive club.

I agree that it's pretty much impossible to restrict development of nuclear technology at a state (political speak for: country) level. After thinking about it more, I think one of the big factors that has everybody up in arms (possibly literally in the next few months) is the fact that Iran has a tendency to "assist" smaller, non-state-owned/non-government assets in acquiring weapons technology for their own purposes. Hamas comes to mind, as well as some alleged support to Al Qaeda (or however they wish to spell it today).

If you only consider the political game at the state level, if Iran obtains the ability to weaponize uranium deposits, then you have a MAD situation. Mutually Assured Destruction.
It's essentially a re-staging of the Cold War, but now it's based on religious ideologies, which may lead to a lesser degree of self-restraint/stability when compared to the showdowns between the "West" and the USSR/Cuba.

When you add in the possibility that lower-level organizations supporting Iranian interests can get weapons passed down to them, then a whole new can of worms opens up.
Also, through all of this, we have to remember that these are the actions of governments, and that these governments don't always work within the best interests of their own citizens. There are many, many highly educated, intelligent, moderate, and just generally pleasant Iranian (and Israeli!) citizens both in their own countries and around the world, that do not advocate the destruction of this, that, and the other thing, and that are striving for global cooperation in a number of matters.

[Ian Warren]

I don,t understand why this very same subject about the TTH's in the middle east - in every country , are all the same , first they preach to god , dog or Bob and believe they do not want to hurt peoples or populations , maybe people (we) should look at closing the borders and let them go for it .... anybody believes one good person come out this region is not shown the greed that person is after once that person is outside and has his/her booty (cash,gold) .

Yelling capitalistic pigs , i,m offend by that - .... they want to have it - well they got the technology .. all this rubbish about capital gain and uses of hardware , all their jibber jibber about not using such toys of the evil west only to broadcast on our TV's in my home and all the sob stories . These TTH's have being going for it for centuries , and to confirm that lets just go and watch an execution , cut the head of the Infidel Western Pig on hi tec satillite TV .. using the the very hi tech electronics they don't like using ... YEAH RIGHT !

This is not twenty years off pushing .. i see dates only go back to 81- Israel hit Iran in 1979 , first combat sortie with the F-16 .. umm maybe people should get off the PCs and TVs and go to the library because it started broiling during the build of the Suez Canal in the 1800 hundreds then real pooh hit the fan weeks after WWII .. , soon as one saw this so called western world they all wanted it because all they lived in was dirt ghettos .. no real sewer/power infrastructure and most of it is still like it today .

Nuclear Weapons , well ... we can do with them and we can't do with out them . Safer in a cold war than it is in a hotted TTH turmoil because if one got out off hand the world police moved in .

[SeanTK]

Ah, the NZFF national pastime: Trying to figure out just what the hell Ian is trying to say....

Back on topic:
To be brief, it all comes down to a matter of education. Ignorance is an enabler of a lot of the world's troubles today, and if we could somehow ensure that all people had access to a quality, well rounded education, I think that would go a long way to solving a lot of problems.

Edit/update: I'm well aware that the origin of much of the Middle Eastern turmoil goes back a lot further than the Cold War years. As sad as it is to say, it seems that religious interpretations have led to a lot of issues (including across other regions of the world...thinking of the Crusades here....and the Spanish Inquisition...because no-one expects the Span....erm...nevermind. )

[Ian Warren]

QUOTE (SeanTK @ Feb 13 2012,2:39 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ah, the NZFF national pastime: Trying to figure out just what the hell Ian is trying to say....

If i spoke my mind and truth , there would be nothing but empty page ... come to think entire thread disappear s.. must be the TTH's < go to Indonesia

[Timmo]

QUOTE (Splitpin @ Feb 13 2012,11:58 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

"I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology." exactly the point i was trying to make (in my mixed up way).....I understand the friction that Iran is causing , but how can nations that already have those weapons dictate who cant have them.
Let them all stockpile the bloody things , but dont make it an exclusive club.

Exactly, especially those who pretend they don't have them but (most likely) do and are not signatories to the NNPT (i.e. Israel)

[SeanTK]

Looks like it's tit for tat now:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/artic...jectid=10785415

[Splitpin]

QUOTE (SeanTK @ Feb 14 2012,4:11 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Looks like it's tit for tat now:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/artic...jectid=10785415

Sure looks that way.....where too now i wonder?

[Rotordude]

Ever since man learnt to throw stones the world was nigh. If it happens it happens. I just dont even bother thinking about it.

[Splitpin]

QUOTE (Rotordude @ Feb 14 2012,6:28 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Ever since man learnt to throw stones the world was nigh. If it happens it happens. I just dont even bother thinking about it.

Good idea RD.....Just more unnecessary stress(to think about it)......but then i do start thinking about it

[cowpatz]

QUOTE (steelsporran @ Feb 13 2012,11:44 AM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I think it is nigh on impossible to restrict possession of nuclear technology.

   The Saudis have stated they will go nuclear if Iran produces weapons, Syria is suspected of also having a nuclear weapons programme so probably the only hope of equilibrium in the region will be what has so far prevented nuclear war - MAD (mutually assured destruction).

The real problem here is that Iran has openly stated on the world stage that it wants to annihilate Israel out of existence. Even if they choose not to nuke Israel outright they could escalate their terror campaigns directly or indirectly knowing that Israel would have to think twice before responding and how it responded. These people have lived with some form of conflict throughout history and believe that death is honourable, rewarded in the afterlife and will make one a martyr. Do we really want a corrupt country like Iran, with known support of terrorist groups, to have and to stockpile nuclear weapons?
Israel has it's work cutout should it launch a preemptive air strike. Iran is at the maximum range of it's strike fighters. They only have 4 tanker aircraft and these would need to be defended by fighters (less available for the strike). Iran has spread out its reactors and enrichment facilities and is hardening them. There is doubt that the GBU-28 bunker buster will be powerful enough to penetrate the bunkers and hardening. It would need to strike multiple targets in one go (they have never done this). Iran has quite a modern and sophisticated network of radar and anti aircraft missiles and they have learned from Israeli attacks in Syria and Iraq. Iran has medium range missiles that would reach Israel and these would most likely be used as part of a counterstrike. Iran's navy would disrupt shipping in the strait of Hormuz (where 17% of the world oil supply transits). This would be the excuse the Americans need to join the party.

Certainly interesting and worrying times.

[Ian Warren]

Can anybody tell me and in a Chronological order from 1945 ( this makes it easy simply due to the lengthy list ) when any country within this region ..

Israel Iraq Iran Syria Egypt Jordan ever really stopped !

They never stop and they never will until they get there , martya's or what ever , entire region gets to much sun , for the TTH's maybe a few more buckets of sunshine in the right place .

[Timmo]

QUOTE (cowpatz @ Feb 15 2012,1:33 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

The real problem here is that Iran has openly stated on the world stage that it wants to annihilate Israel out of existence.

Presumably you are talking about the 'infamous' Ahmadinejad quote? You may want to update your knowledge on that one.

Many news sources repeated the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting statement by Ahmadinejad that "Israel must be wiped off the map",[5][6] an English idiom which means to "cause a place to stop existing",[7] or to "obliterate totally",[8] or "destroy completely".[9]
Ahmadinejad's phrase was "بايد از صفحه روزگار محو شود" according to the text published on the President's Office's website.[10]
The translation presented by the official Islamic Republic News Agency has been challenged by Arash Norouzi, who says the statement "wiped off the map" was never made and that Ahmadinejad did not refer to the nation or land mass of Israel, but to the "regime occupying Jerusalem". Norouzi translated the original Persian to English, with the result, "the Imam said this regime occupying Jerusalem must vanish from the page of time."[11] Juan Cole, a University of Michigan Professor of Modern Middle East and South Asian History, agrees that Ahmadinejad's statement should be translated as, "the Imam said that this regime occupying Jerusalem (een rezhim-e eshghalgar-e qods) must [vanish from] the page of time (bayad az safheh-ye ruzgar mahv shavad).[12] According to Cole, "Ahmadinejad did not say he was going to 'wipe Israel off the map' because no such idiom exists in Persian." Instead, "he did say he hoped its regime, i.e., a Jewish-Zionist state occupying Jerusalem, would collapse."[13] The Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) translated the phrase similarly, as "this regime" must be "eliminated from the pages of history."[14]
Iranian government sources denied that Ahmadinejad issued any sort of threat. On 20 February 2006, Iran's foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki told a news conference: "How is it possible to remove a country from the map? He is talking about the regime. We do not recognize legally this regime."[15][16][17]

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mahmoud_Ahmad...onism.22_speech

[Lapun]

Remember the dead at Hiroshima? One blinding flash and it was all over.

The only soldiers to escape the lingering affects of war were those who died.

We have about as much control over warring nations and other people - (in fact I wonder how much control I have over myself) as we do over earthquakes - let's forget them and play simulators - no use worrying.

[07moffata]

QUOTE (Lapun @ Feb 15 2012,8:23 PM) <{POST_SNAPBACK}>

and play simulators

Ohh boy, play simulators? Careful, you might start a nuclear war here
Im very awed at the amount of thought you guys have put into your replies